Reasonably Thinking

A year ago, I argued that a combination of floods in Australia, drought in Russia, and lack of adequate snowfall in the US grain states would dampen the current amount of global wheat supply, sending prices higher.  Purchasing the JJG, the grains fund, seemed to be a prudent play on the topic, and through February, proved to be a fortuitous investment.  Alas, I overstayed my welcome and exited my position at a loss.

Going forward, I will likely replace this position with another real asset, perhaps timber.  Moving to cash also eases up my margin account, where I may be assigned two options positions expiring tomorrow.  I’ll be keeping an eye on the 50 strike for SSO and 52 strike for GDX.