Hello!  I’ve been working on the following article for the past few weeks, mainly just trying to organize my thoughts.  I have structured the article with three main arguments, each with its own catalyst, then some counterarguments and a subsequent refutation.  Feel free to throw me some feedback.

Also, I’m working on two potential upcoming trades:  one involves shorting a small east coast bank, the other is a long/short currency trade.  So, please bookmark this site or utilize the RSS feed.  Enjoy!

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The Next Recession
October 12, 2009

The past two years has played host to some of the most eye-popping events in financial history. Wall Street titans and financial powerhouses that endured generations of battles have bitten the dust in this struggle for survival. Consumers that borrowed their way toward wealth are facing the reality of paying for the excesses of having lived outside their means. Elected officials and government entities that also borrowed from the future are finally making needed yet unpopular decisions, and they are still likely to come up short. Indeed, to study the rewards and consequences of actions made preceding to and throughout this paradigm shift have been fascinating. Yet, many look forward to the breath of fresh air in the form of an economic rebound. Politicians, newscasters, and financial experts all trumpet the good things ahead, celebrate less bad news as turning a corner, and extrapolate trivial items as proof of a recovery.

And they are wrong. Some are motivated to sell good news; others are simply misinformed or not informed enough.  Everyone seems to look at recent good news and accept as fact that good news breeds good news.  This is surely not the case.  The road ahead is filled with hazards, none of which have been addressed by the cheerful folks on TV.  The economic pitfalls in front of us… (Continue reading)